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Florida Population and Developed Land Projected to Double Over Next 50 Years
With close to 18 million residents in 2005, Florida already is overwhelmed with the ramifications of rampant sprawl, rapidly vanishing natural areas, and overcrowded roads. What will Florida look like in 2060, when its population is projected to reach almost 36 million?
To help address this question, 1000 Friends of Florida contracted with the University of Florida's GeoPlan Center to develop a "population distribution scenario" for the state. 1000 Friends also contracted with the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology to provide guidance to state leadership and citizens on how to deal with this growth in a more proactive manner.
1000 Friends thanks the project sponsors: The St. Joe Company, The Nature Conservancy, A. Duda & Sons, Glatting Jackson, Robert Parks, Fishkind and Associates, and WilsonMiller.
Florida 2060: A Population Distribution Scenario for the State of Florida
Under the leadership of Paul D. Zwick and Margaret H. Carr, the University of Florida's GeoPlan Center used geographic information systems (GIS) to develop a series of graphics depicting what land use might look like in Florida in 2020, 2040, and 2060, assuming current development patterns continue. The resulting study includes the conclusions that by 2060:
- Roughly 7 million acres of additional land will be converted from rural to urban uses in Florida, including 2.7 million acres of existing agricultural lands and 2.7 million acres of native habitat.
- More than two million acres within one mile of existing conservation lands will be converted to an urban use, which will complicate their management and isolate some conservation lands in a sea of urbanization.
- The counties projected to undergo the most dramatic transformation, in rank order, will be Glades, Hardee, DeSoto, Hendry, Osceola, Baker, Flagler and Santa Rosa.
What does this mean for different parts of the state?
Central Florida -- This region will experience "explosive" growth, with continuous urban development from Ocala to Sebring, and St. Petersburg to Daytona Beach. The 1-75 and I-4 corridors are expected to be fully developed. Most of Florida's Heartland will convert to urban development, resulting in a dramatic loss of agricultural character and native Florida landscape that define this region today. Seminole, Orange, Brevard, Indian River, Pinellas, and Manatee counties are expected to build out in the period from 2020 to 2040, so population is projected to spill over into surrounding counties in the region. Virtually all the natural systems and wildlife corridors in this region will be fragmented, if not replaced, by urban development.
Southwest Florida -- Charlotte, Lee and Collier counties are expected to build out before 2060, causing an almost continuous band of urban development along the southwest Florida coast and population spillover into adjacent inland counties. Large amounts of this spillover are projected for DeSoto, Hendry and Glades counties. These three counties are projected to experience the greatest transformation over the next 50 years as they go from largely rural to largely urban in character. The result will be an almost continuous urban strip linking Ft. Myers to West Palm Beach.
Southeast Florida -- This region will become mostly urbanized, with the exception of some agricultural lands north and south of Lake Okeechobee. Surprisingly, in part because of the county's current patterns of high density development and remaining expanses of agricultural lands, Dade County is not projected to reach build out by 2060.
The Florida Keys -- All vacant land vacant land in the Keys is projected to be developed, including areas not necessarily accessible by automobile.
Northeast Florida -- Duval County is projected build out sometime after 2040, and by 2060 its population is anticipated to spill over into surrounding Nassau, Clay, St. Johns and Baker counties, forever changing their rural character.
Northwest Florida and the Big Bend -- Only the Panhandle and Big Bend are projected to retain significant areas of open space, and this is only if current growth and development patterns continue.
A Time for Leadership: Growth Management and Florida 2060
Building on the findings of Florida 2060, the Center for Quality Growth and Regional Development at the Georgia Institute of Technology prepared a series of recommendations for state leadership and citizens in Florida. This policy framework for growth leadership builds on the 2003 report by the Florida Chamber Foundation, New Cornerstone, which called for a shift from growth management to growth leadership. Growth leadership is defined as a proactive approach to plan for the future that is both sustainable and environmentally friendly.
The report notes that the governor, state legislators, and citizens can change the course of development in Florida through deliberate growth leadership. Overarching recommendations include:
- Expand Florida Forever. Accelerate and expand this highly successful natural lands acquisition program to permanently protect not only natural lands and open and recreation space, but also agricultural and forestry lands.
- Adopt New Policy on Conversion of Rural Lands to Urban Use. A growth leadership perspective requires new public policy mandating that the conversion of rural land to urban density only be allowed in return for significant public benefit, especially the preservation of natural and agricultural lands and open space.
- Create a 100 Year Legacy Plan. The plan should identify the lands for permanent protection from development and lands that are appropriate for development and redevelopment. All state funding should be consistent with the Legacy Plan.
- Identify Leaders and Galvanize Support. Identify champions to organize and advocate for Florida's vision and plans. Such leadership must come from a broad cross section of Floridians who believe that our future is far too important to just let it happen.
Next Steps
To move these studies forward, 1000 Friends is undertaking a series of activities in 2007. It is convening state leaders to begin the task of developing new policy on the conversion of rural lands to urban use. 1000 Friends is also partnering with the University of Central Florida Metropolitan Center for Regional Studies, which has commissioned the University of Pennsylvania to create an "Alternative Future" which will identify what Florida will look like in 2060 if the projected growth and development patterns follow the principles of smart growth.
Florida has received a wake up call. It simply cannot afford to continue to lose valuable natural and agricultural lands at such an alarming rate. If this state is to maintain and even enhance its quality of life, the time is now to bring about meaningful change in the way Florida develops over the coming 50 years.
Quotable Quotes
"Together, these studies provide a wake-up call for every Florida resident, business and elected official. A tidal wave of growth is headed our way, and we need proactive leadership and long-term, large-scale planning to ensure we protect our environment and quality of life. We understand the scope of the challenge before us - now is the time for us plan intelligently for the next fifty plus years."
-- Charles Pattison, AICP, Executive Director
1000 Friends of Florida
"Florida has been one of the fastest growing states in the country for seven decades. These studies confirm two things. Over the next fifty years, we can expect Florida to continue to be one of our nation's fastest growing states. And second, we have the opportunity to prepare, to learn from our mistakes - and to learn from what we've done right. We can enact sensible, sustainable development strategies that accommodate growth while protecting the environment and the things that make Florida special."
-- Peter S. Rummell, Chairman and CEO
The St. Joe Company
These studies make clear that, as growth in the state accelerates, agricultural land will continue to be in the path of development. Agriculture is a cornerstone of the Florida economy, and farmers and ranchers contribute significantly to the stewardship of the state's land, wildlife and natural resources. We must develop a visionary strategy that maintains agriculture's stewardship role while providing incentives for those who elect to keep their land in agriculture."
-- Joseph Duda, President and CEO
A. Duda & Sons
"We must define a new path to the future. We must all work together to find a way to accommodate growth while keeping Florida the special place it has been. We all have a stake in protecting our quality of life. We owe it to our children and future generations of Floridians."
-- Tim Jackson, Vice President
1000 Friends of Florida
"An alarm bell has been sounded. But that alarm should be a call for realistic large-scale planning, rather than platitudes about slowing growth. The future has not yet been written. We can still choose the kind of place Florida will be in fifty years. But we are going to have to work together to make it the special place we all want it to be."
-- Vicki Tschinkel, Florida Director
The Nature Conservancy
source: 1000friendsofflorida.org